A Vague Ceasefire Brokered Between Israel & Hezbollah
Joe Biden mooted US ceasefire deal has apparently been brokered by Anthony Blinken between Israel and Hezbollah that is supposed to be in place since the morning of Wednesday, the 27th of Nov 2024. It is a bit surprising news for the world, esp the UN where a proscribed terror organisation Hezbollah has been permitted to enter into a ceasefire agreement with a sovereign State of Israel. Till now, the international policy was not to enter into any agreement with terror organisations. They are not trustworthy at all. They have no guarantor and if they violate the terms, they cannot be held liable. Hence, apparently all parties have erred in brokering this ceasefire deal…the US, the UN, Israel…all alike. The terms of this ceasefire deal is produced below:-
There are many apprehensions in this deal as mentioned below:-
- The deal involves a Terror Organisation as a party which is against the provisions of any international agreement in which the UN is also a party.
- The first clause of the agreement itself is vague that could be exploited by either of the warring party where it reads “Hezbollah will cease its military presence across much of southern Lebanon”. What is meant by “much of southern Lebanon”? No one can explain.
- The agreement is silent on the roles of thousands of Lebanese army and UN peace-keepers in the southern Lebanon. Are they expected to ensure removal of Hezbollah from the area, maintain a status quo or watch Hezbollah keeping their jihadists in the underground tunnels? What is their role?
- Lebanon has opposed to any retaliatory action by Israel in case Hezbollah breaches the agreement, what is the use of this deal?
- What if Hezbollah reinforces the presence of its jihadists/terrorists in the areas beyond “much of southern Lebanon”, what is to be done? Will it be a breach of the agreement? Are the peace-keepers expected to withdraw apprehending retaliatory action by Israel?
Impacts of the Ceasefire
All said, this deal should serve a reasonably satisfactory exit provisions for both Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah will be relieved that any further pounding of its positions, hideouts, destructions of stockpiled arms and ammunitions will stop. They will also be pleased that their present chief will live at least the next 60 days if ceasefire is not violated. On the other hand, Israel will be reasonably satisfied that their two objectives have been achieved…firstly, in creating a safe zone free of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon where from even a small range rocket threatened the 50K inhabitants of northern Israel and secondly, a large part (nearly 65-70%) of the Hezbollah arms and ammunitions incl many missiles hidden inside the houses of their supporters, have been destroyed. Israel will also have time to replenish their fast depleting ammunitions. This ceasefire deal is also extremely good for Lebanese govt that their handful of Army should be able to keep some hold that was made impossible by an enormous-sized Hezbollah. They will be mightily happy that IDF bombardment on Hezbollah position will cease which also caused substantial collateral damaged to the innocent civilians and their habitats.
This story is being written 6 hrs after the ceasefire cane in force. As per reports coming at this hour, it is apparently holding good and displaced people have started returning to southern Lebanon. It is believed that in a day or so, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in Lebanon will start withdrawing simultaneously with Lebanese-UN forces filling the void. It must be realised that IDF has only destroyed most of Hezbollah arms and ammunition. Large numbers of their cadres, much of which are from the local Shia’te population, will be returning back to their homes. Hence, there is always a possibility of re-grouping…something that UN peace-keepers and US-led international monitoring agencies will have to keep an eye upon. A similar ceasefire and fragile peace was brokered by the UN in 2006 Israel-Lebanon war BUT its outcome has been abysmal, if any.
Unresolved Issue of Fundamental Causes
While the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will ease the pressure on the latter, the fundamental or the root cause remains unresolved. The cause for the present conflagration can be traced back to the inhuman attack by Hamas Jihadists on Israel on 7th Oct 23 (read “Beyond Hamas beasthood in Israel: The Way Ahead”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/beyond-hamas-beast-hood-in-israel-the-way-ahead/). This attack was preceded by a barrage of coordinated rocket attacks in thousands by both Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel that overwhelmed the Israeli Irondome air defence system. In the last 13 months, Hamas has been brought to their knees but they are not done with. With nearly 46000 people killed in Gaza, it is believed that roughly 12-15 thousands of Hamas terrorists and their supporters (acting as human shields) have been killed. Hence, substantial numbers of Hamas terrorists and their supporters are still present in Gaza mixed-up with their civilian population (read “Any Innocent Palestinians in Gaza? Leaving Exceptions, None”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/any-innocent-palestinian-in-gaza/).
It may be possible for the US to broker another ceasefire in Gaza too…BUT…with Hamas terrorists still at large along with their supporters, the dangers are not over. May be, that IDF will remain in-charge of security in Gaza for few months in which, they may be able to nab more numbers of Hamas terrorists and break their fighting teeth. Hence, Hamas in their vastly depleted strength may not be able to launch another 7th Oct like attack in the near future. BUT…what to do with Jew-centric hatred in Quran that is the root cause of Jihadi violence…not only against Jews but against all non-Islamic religions and faiths?
Hamas-Hezbollah are only two terrorist organisation that Israel has been able to give a bleeding nose. What to do with other >180 jihadi organisations in the world? ISIS is present at the next doors in Iraq and Idlib province of Syria. In fact, west Asia is the hub centre of numerous many Jihadi organisations mainly in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine and the adjacent sub-Saharan regions. It is beyond the powers of Israel to combat the numerous jihadists whom Iranian radical Islamic leader Khamenei had given a call to unite so as to destroy Israel. It will require all non-Islamic nations to take on the jihadists in their influence areas. Boko-haram, Abu-Sayyaf, Al-Shabab and several others are already creating havoc in the African continents. Hence, it is time that UN/UNSC/UNHRC takes a call to get rid of them…BUT…knowing their character, they will not (read “Muted UNHRC Response Encouraging Islamic Genocides”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/muted-unhrc-response-encouraging-islamic-genocide/). They will continue turning blind eyes towards Islamic Terror groups spread all over the world.
The Bottom Lines
In a nutshell, it can be said that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a good sign to end the devastating IDF war against the Jihadi terrorists BUT it will not end their reign of Islamic terror. Hamas has surely been brought to their knees and the spine of Hezbollah given mighty blows, they may lie low for few years. However, the hate being preached in Quran against the non-Muslims of the world will continue inciting them to carry out Jihad. No country will remain untouched by it. Afghanistan has just witnessed a complete genocide of Sikhs and Hindus in the hands of Taliban. Numerous many Jihadi organisations are presently carrying out genocides of religious minority groups in Pakistan, Bangladesh and in African continent. France, Russia, Kosovo, Germany, USA and several other nations have started feeling the heat generated by Jihadists…both local, regional and global. The world needs to adopt measures to treat disease, not the symptoms (read “Islamic Hate and Intolerance: Treat the Disease not Symptoms”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/islamic-hate-and-intolerance-treat-disease-not-symptoms/). China has shown a way to control Jihadi terror in their troubled territory of Xinjiang BUT the largely pseudo-secular world will not adapt it (read “World Must Adopt Chinese Model of Islam”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/world-must-adopt-chinese-model-of-islam/). Earlier this is done, better will be the outcome for a peaceful world where all can live in peace and harmony.