Iran Escalates Tensions in Middle East
Problems at Hand
On early hours of 13 Apr 2024, Iran carried out a massive coordinated aerial attack on Israel both from its own territory as well as its proxy bases in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Hezbollah held bases in Lebanon too may have participated. It was a massive attack of over 300 suicide drones and missiles (both ballistic & cruise). How many of these could reach their targets, are unknown at this juncture but it is known that Israeli and US fighter jets as well as their Irondome & Ironclad Air Defence Systems had a feast on the advancing Iranian projectiles, intercepting over 99.9% of them. It must have been a fearful morning for the Israelis expecting this attack. Just like post 7th Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, jubilant Iranians came to street to celebrate. Iran conveyed to the UN that their retaliation is done for now and any further action will be subject to Israeli response. It is believed that Biden has advised Israel not to retaliate at least at this juncture however, knowing Israeli doctrines of war, retaliatory attack on Tehran and its proxies may be inevitable.
The Background
Iran had declared on 01 Apr 24 itself that they will retaliate Israeli attack on their Damascus Embassy that killed their senior military commanders and several others. The threat was credible; firstly, because it had been issued by Iranian radical religious head Ayatollah, secondly that it came as a response in which Iranian military generals were killed and last but not the least, Iran had been long looking for an excuse to attack Israel. There are several corroborating geopolitico-religious factors too. It is a geographical fact that all Islamic nations have been against the very formation of Israel in 1948. Further, Islam sees Jews as Kaffirs occupying their land (although these were Jew-land before Islam was founded) drawing inimical actions/religious war (jihad) for re-capturing. It is other matter though that they received enormous drubbing by Israel in all those wars. The current Israel-Hamas war was initiated allegedly by Iran through their Hamas wing of terrorists on 7th Oct 2023. Israel considers Islamic Jihadists as a threat for their existence and vows to incapacitate Hamas to an extent that they will not be able to mount another attack in future. A long history of Arab-Israel war is summarized below:-
Following series of strikes and counterstrikes between Israel/US facilities and Iran sponsored terror groups during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, it seems Israel Defence Force (IDF) had a credible intel input of a meeting between top Iranian military Commander and reps of Gaza/West Bank terror outfits (of United Jihad Council, Hamas & Hezbollah) possibly discussing escalating the war at Iranian Embassy in Syrian Capital Damascus. IDF chose it appropriate to attack in which top Iranian military commander Gen Zehadi along with seven others were reportedly killed. It is considered a significant blow to Iran and they vowed to retaliate. It is known that high ranking Iranian military commanders often visit or live in Damascus for supplying military hardwares to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and West bank/Gaza.
Geography of Combat Area
It is important to note that Iranian territorial boundary doesn’t meet Israel hence, any sudden ground invasion by Iranian Army without alliance with Iraq, Lebanon or Jordan is impossible (the map shown below refers). There, number of ground forces or territorial combat weapons hardly makes any difference unless Iran finds an ally capable of allowing its ground combat assets to border with Syria, Lebanon or West Bank. It is possible that Turkiye or Iraq may play Islamic card to feign ignorance to Iranian movements over short ground stretches into Syria (esp those north of Mosul/Kurdish areas). In the absence of air dominance, even large stretches of combat vehicles could be turned into its graveyard as seen in Russia-Ukraine war. However, accidental Iran-Israel stand-off in deep sea (at Gulf of Aden/Red Sea/Mediterranean) or unexpected strike by Houthi missiles on ships cannot be ruled out.There is no intel report of recent Iranian military MoUs with them for providing passages, logistics or supplies. Israeli boundary cannot be breached by Iranian navy either in Red Sea or the Mediterranean Sea where US Warships are already on guard. Only Air route is open to Iran to mount air attacks. Iranian fighter planes are not capable of hitting distant targets.
Hinderance to Iranian Attack
Only suicide drones positioned close to Israeli borders or long-distance cruise/ballistic missiles could be used that could be highly vulnerable to interception by Israeli and US Air Defence systems like Irondome, Ironclad or their fighter jets. Iraq and Jordan too had closed their airspace to Iranian projectiles. Israel and USA claimed that over 99.9% of their projectiles were intercepted and destroyed. However, experts in Arab-Israel war feel that matter doesn’t end here. Israeli retaliations are bound to be credible, hitting the targets of strategic importance. On the other hand, Iran has a large terrorist forces in its sleeves that could be mobilized.
We must not forget there are >175 terrorist organisations scattered in the world which could be mobilized at short times to fight jihad unitedly against Israel. It is also worth knowing that there are numerous hub centers for Jihadists in the region…be it Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon as well as some others incl nearby African nations. Major escalation thru’ military or jihadist campaigns is fraught with involving other nations in the region too.
The Iranian Escalation of War
Present escalation by Iran seems suicidal but that is what the jihadists all over the world are. Iran has been bearing the brunt of US sanctions for their nuclear proliferations. Their resources are distributed in terror assets in Syria, Lebanon, West bank, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq. They may not be able to sustain a new frontier of war. Direct attacks on Tehran by both Israel, USA and other allies may be disastrous. Israel is also under tremendous international pressure to avoid entering south Gaza (Rafah) and declare ceasefire. Opening new frontier could make its relatively small-size forces vulnerable to fatigue in prolonged protracted wars. Its dwindling ammunition stores may not be sufficient to open a larger frontier. USA too will avoid opening of any new front against Iran as it is already being stretched in Ukraine, Gaza and South China Sea especially when Biden is facing a serious threat in the coming elections. Hence, it is quite possible that hard diplomacy by all stakeholders may be already working overtime, to avoid an all-out war. This could also split the OIC and GCC in two camps of pro & anti-Iran. UN/UNSC/UNRWA has already been in poor light for their acts in Gaza. Sordid collusions of UNRWA with Jihadists has already created public storm. If another frontier of war opens, it is possible that significant aid to UNRWA could be suspended by the world donors. It is also understood that with another conflict raging, there could be a serious disruption in the world supply chain already impacted by Ukraine and Gaza wars.
Possible Repurcussions of the Escalation
It is a difficult time for the world peace at its cross-roads. It has all potential components of flaring and escalating with wide-ranging destructions incl nuclear arsenals being used or such facilities coming under attacks. World has already been facing long jihadist conflagrations whether in Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere. It is possible that many European nations hitherto reluctant to strike Jihadists, could say for once and all…’enough is enough’ and join in to wipe out the Islamic terrorists not only in the Middle East but elsewhere too. India, EU States and African nations have come under jihadi attacks in past. Russia has recently suffered a jihadi attack in Moscow and there are FBI reports of jihadists planning a similar one on USA. Radical groups of jihadists in Xinjiang province of China have been proving a headache. There are all possibilities of the war of the Middle East slipping out of hands. If that happens, there is a strong possibility of some of the State sponsors of terror, to be wiped out.
The Bottomline
All must know that wars bring devastations. It is so crucial to understand it now esp when several nations are trying to come out of the economic meltdown caused by the Covid19 pandemic. NATO has opened an unwanted war against Russia in Ukraine with destructions. Radical state of Azerbaijan has been attacking Armenia with terrorists provided by Turkiye and Pakistan in its ranks & files. Syria and Yemen have been boiling for long with Sectarian war. Jihadists in Africa have been terrorizing the masses in vast stretch incl Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan and Sahel region. Afghanistan and Pakistan are hot beds of jihadi terror. Radical Islam is spoiling several other regions of Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Lebanon, Egypt and elsewhere. Radical Islam is spreading like a cancer that needs urgent treatment. It may be the time to take the bulls by their horns. Jihadists are friend of none. Most in the world know this fact but unfortunately the mighty ones don’t realise it despite having suffered. Israel knows it well hence, wouldn’t risk.