Modi’s US Visit Feb 2025; A Mixed Bag

Indian people, media and the opinion makers have been busy in the 2nd week of Feb 2025 trying to forecast the results of his visit to USA. New US Administration gives India and PM Modi a very special status for Strategic reasons and hence, had extended invitation thru’ Foreign Minister Dr Jaishankar when he had attended his oath taking ceremony. Indian govt managed to combine this invite with another invitation from France to co-chair the ‘Artificial Intelligence Conference 2025’ in which Indian technocrats had very high stakes. It goes without saying that after a very successful outcome of the AI conference in which he could influence the world opinion to host the next AI conference in India, he proceeded on his second leg of visit to USA to meet his political close friend, President Donald Trump. It was also for the benefit of Indian trade and economy that before Donald Trump could sign any Executive Order of punitive tariffs, an atmosphere of cordiality was created.

As predicted, digital media went berserk on this visit as PM Modi was the first world leader (outside the ring of the US Allies) who was invited by the new US Administration. As it often happens, Indian media houses and panel of experts of Foreign and Defence experts had their lists of expectations ready from this visit as placed below:-

Indo-US Trade. Since bilateral trade was the first in agenda of talks, Trump emerged more cleaver by signing an Executive order of reciprocal tariff even before meeting Modi. Of course, it is better than a punitive tariff signed against many others with whom USA had a negative balance of trade. In the coming months and years, India should be able to maneuver itself for a better profitability and Trump administration could be expected to soften their stand like what they did in the case of Canada and Mexico. It is possible that India may be able to negotiate a better tariff schedule in some of the sectors in due course of time. The two leaders made a mention of boosting bilateral trade to $500 billion by year 2035, but it is only a rough work if anything. While Trump, a businessman, may be tempted to keep Trade in focus, India was keen to have an overall perspective in sight whether Trade, Investments, Defence cooperation, Security (incl Financial), Human Resources, Indo-Arabian Ocean and the Global peace among some others too. Of course, when world leaders of such statures meet, all contemporary issues are on the table for discussions. This visit couldn’t have been different.

Investments from the US. US offers for investments in key emerging sectors (esp Semiconductor, Lithium extraction & its Hi-Tech molding into advanced products) are vital for India and could be key factor in achieving Modi’s ambition of “Viksit Bharat” by the year 2047. These sectors are projected to take a big leap to push Indian Hi tech industry into global leadership role and also push the economy grow at an unprecedented rate. The bilateral talk also pushes Indian Pharmaceuticals a big gain where they will be able to set-up manufacturing plants for their generic drug formulations. The bilateral talks on investment have been very positive that was a symbiotic benefit for both. US investments in projects like India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) is vital to Europe and many others. As per information given, very little mention has been made of various US investments even though not much was expected in this short visit of a day and half. The present investment is just around $65 billion.

Indo-US Defence cooperation. There were lot of hype on possible Indo-US Defence cooperation, but onlookers were rather disappointed to hear of US offer of F-35 to India even though India had not sought even a preliminary bid for it. Of course, the aircraft is very advanced but this design in >20 yrs old with many versions of it in place. Even if IAF makes a bid for it and its tech & Op utility in Indian context is established, it may take 3-5 yrs to decide. The price negotiations and other financial formalities for this very costly aircraft may take another 1-2 yr before order could be placed. Thereafter, it could take anything from 4-5 yrs for the first of the OEM aircraft in operationally flying condition to be delivered. Working out the ToT and manufacture in India may take anything from 7-10 yrs. By that time, newer aircraft with higher capabilities will be flying in the Indian vicinity and India will have to look out for it. Hence, both IAF and Govt of India has to seriously think whether they should go for this aircraft at all. 

The earlier signed MoUs on GE 414 Engine and MQ 9 predator drone seem to be in stages of deep freeze for want of any progress on the ToT front that India seeks. A very mild attention it received that HAL team will visit USA in March this year to hold talks. Either this talk fructifies, or India may have to advance the SAFHAL engine in partnership with Safran France on mission mode to alleviate any concern on fulfilling the number requirements of Tejas in the IAF squadrons. 

National Security. Today, both India and the US are suffering from the multiple security threats by the so-called Leftist Deep-State within USA. While radical Islam is a big concern for both nations, individuals such as Pannun or Brar are no lesser a threat. They keep indulging repeatedly in issuing threats against India and its national assets yet the US govt is rather lenient towards them. They deserve to be put behind bars in the US jails or be deported to India to face law. Deportation of Pakistani terrorist Tahabur Rana (David Hadley) from US jail after 16 yrs of his crimes in Mumbai 26/11 terror acts, is a very small achievement. 

Threats to financial security has been making repeated headlines in India before most if not all parliament sessions. Thanks to Hindenburg’s active anti-India activities in USA and Indian national Congress (INC) remotely controlled by Gandy family that Indian subscribers in Stock market were made to lose heavily because of falsehood and dis-information. Mrs Sonia Gandy is believed to be a stakeholder in Hindenburg-related agency. It is no secret that anti-India funds flowing in the country is causing Financial Terrorism (read “I.N.D.I.A a recipient of anti-India Funds”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/i-n-d-i-a-recipient-of-anti-india-funds/). These are all in black & white yet, they manage to dodge the investigation agencies. Both India and US administration must act against such people living in USA but causing financial terrorism in India.

Very fact that Ms Tulsi Gabbard visited PM Modi for discussions on Indo-US related intelligence and security issues, it bears testimony that the new US administration is aware of the intriguing issues even though no press release or communique might have been issued on the highly sensitive matter. This must have also included the US law agency unilaterally issuing a warrant against Indian NSA. 

There were Indian anxiety on persecution of non-Muslims in Bangladesh for which the new US administration wants India itself to initiate actions to redress the legitimate concerns. Even the UN Human Rights Commission has issued a report of serious rights violation of the non-Muslims in Bangladesh, their temples being vandelised, people being killed, women being molested and worst, the administration being hand-in-gloves with the jihadi groups (read “Indian relations with radical State of Bangladesh”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/indian-relations-with-radical-state-of-bangladesh/). It will be prudent for Modi govt to first bring in a condemnation motion in the Indian parliament followed by active moral and military support to the emerging “Suraksha or Raksha Vahini” made of the non-Muslims. It may finally lead to another 1971-like situation to liberate them from the lethal jihadi threats in the northern and western parts on Bangladesh called “Hindudesh” or the likes of, adjoining India, from Rajshahi in west to Mahendraganj in the east (as shown in the map below. It will carve out about 20% Bangladeshi territory for its 17% of non-Muslims and ~4% left-over Muslims. Hindudesh could subsequently declare itself as the first Hindu nation in the world and surely UN/UNSC/UNHRC would gladly welcome it. If there could be 16 Christian, 47 Islamic, 4 Buddhist and 1 Jew nation for their 32%, 23%, 4% and o.6% religious populations, there could surely be one or two Hindu nations for their ~16-18% population (read “विश्व में ४७ इस्लामी, १६ ईसाई, ४ बौद्ध और १ यहूदी राष्ट्र हो सकताहै : तो १ “हिन्दू राष्ट्र” क्यों नहीं ?”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/if-world-can-have-islamic-christian-nations-why-not-hindu-rashtra/). It will also serve Indian interest by having a cushion territory to negate illegal Bangladeshi infiltration in future. This is purely Indian concern and India should stop looking towards US or UN to act on India’s behalf. A similar piece of condemnation motion could be brought against Pakistan and Afghanistan for committing genocide of Hindus, Sikhs & Christians in their respective nations whom India provides refugee status.

Human Resource Development and Employment. India possesses a vast chain of highly skilled human resources. There are approximately 2.9 million Indian working for various US-based multinational firms. It is estimated that nearly 1/5th of the H1B visas is given for the Indian professionals who were under uncertainties in the new US administration. It is believed that there have been assurances from the concerned departments that no skilled Indian worker in job will be retrenched. US administration also announced the relief for the Indian students in higher studies in US universities that their interest will be looked after. In addition, they announced opening of several off-campus study centers by prestigious US Universities in India. This is a great boost for the middle-class Indian students who cannot afford to go to USA for higher education. In addition, Modi govt must create an opening for millions of skilled Indian youths to start a ‘new service platform’ in the US cities as well as in the numerous other nations where skilled manpower shortages are felt.

Surveillance and Control over Indo-Arabian Oceans. In the recent years Indian Navy has emerged as a prominent force to monitor and control the Indo-Arabian oceans…be it helping the maritime shipping against pirates, Houthi Islamic terrorists or nefarious Pakistani drug-smuggling acts all the way from Gulf of Aden to the Bay of Bengal. The new US administration has taken a note of it and has vowed to keep it so. This action is beneficial to both nations. US Navy will not be overstretched in the Indian and Arabian sea as well as India will be able to closely monitor the movements of adversaries esp China and the new emerging axis of Pakistan-Bangladesh bed-fellowship of their Jihadi elements. 

Although the strength of Indian Navy at present is not enough to control the entire stretch of Indian-Arabian ocean BUT in the next 5-6 yrs, it will be so. This may surely upset China and its proxy in Pakistan Navy BUT that should not deter India from projecting itself as a force. In fact, the rate at which all wings of the Indian Armed Forces are growing under Atmanirbhar plan, it should become a Global Force to recon with. Thereafter, the force projection in both Indo-Arabian Sea as well as the Air Space over it would be natural and legitimate too.

Global Peace. The Global Peace is in serious threats for numerous reasons the main ones being the demonic Jihadi forces and other comprising of the warring groups of cold war. Amidst national conflicts, sectarian wars, regional hegemony, proliferation of nuclear arsenals, sky-high ambitions of the emerging global powers etc etc are making the human lives more and more fragile. The raging conflicts in Ukraine, middle east, Sudan, Syria, Congo along with some others, are pushing the world peace to the edge. A few of the genocides have just taken places in Afghanistan (Sikhs & Hindus), Sudan (Fur, Masselite & Zaghawa) and some are ongoing in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Syria, Sahel region and the DRC. No one knows where all these will end BUT If world peace has to prevail, the demonic forces committing atrocities on humanity must be defeated.

The Optics and visuals in the Present Modi-Trump Meeting. While many serious topics of bilateral as well as global importance were discussed between the two leaderships, some media was also pooh-pooh with the emerging optics that suited their narratives. Political opponent of Modi in India immediately mounted scathing attack on the so-called Modi-Trump friendship when they saw no high-ranking US official receive PM Modi on his arrival at Washington. Similar were the attacks when they saw no Trump at the door to receive PM Modi to Whitehouse…BUT…one must not read too much into it. President Trump did not receive French President Macron either at the doors of the Whitehouse. They also wasted no time in criticizing the friendship when Trump signed an Executive Order of reciprocal trade tariff that includes India too, just before meeting Modi. Elon Musk flanked by his child while meeting Modi was seen as the important meeting denigrated to somewhat very casual. However, among the above optics, President Trump pulling the chair himself for PM Modi to sit, was very appreciative for the honour he has for PM Modi.

The Bottomlines

PM Modi has just completed his 8th visit to the US and his first to trump2 administration. Whatever be the reason for visiting Washington in the early days of the new administration in office, the outcome of the visit is surely positive but not the best that was expected out of a friendly head of the US State. India will have to carefully craft its trade policies against reciprocal tariff that might ease out a bit after the dusts settle down. There are surely many positive takeaways in the investment, regional security and Indian role in the Indo-Arabian Oceans. Although USA has offered its latest 5th gen aircraft F-35, India will have to decide if it really wants it. However, on the ToT issues of GE 414 Engine, some ice seems to have melted and HAL team will be visiting US in March this year to negotiate its extent and other nitty-gritties. Overall, it was a positive development but not the best that was expected.