Nuclear Flashpoint: Is the World Prepared for It?

Some Harsh Realities of World War (WW-II)

There is a belief in many quarters of the world powers and literate people that World War II was ended by Atom-Bomb attacks on Japan BUT it is not in conformity with the facts. The scores between the players in the WW-II were already settled much before the use of Atomic weapons had shamed the humanity. Hitler’s Germany was one of the few which had initiated the rot with their attacks on Poland on 01 Sep 1939 but the battles on numerous many frontiers continued with many ups and downs. The will powers of the initial perpetrators of war were broken with execution of Mussolini and suicide of Hitler that led to the unconditional surrender of Germany…all in quick successions in Apr-May 1945. The war could have ended there but for the desire of USA to settle scores with Japan for their Perl Harbor attacks. At that time only USA had the highly destructive nuclear arsenal, and they didn’t want to miss out on it. The humanity was shamed by the US on 6th & 9th Aug in Hiroshima & Nagasaki cities of Japan and officially, Japan surrendered unconditionally on 14 Aug 1945 that ended the WW-II with immense terminal tragedies that were uncalled for. Rest all timelines of numerous many misadventures, gains and losses are the additional sheets of the history books. Had any other nation been in possession of nuclear weapon in that crucial period, the additional pages of history could have been written in charred blood of 10s of millions of more men & women, mostly innocent. Many contemporary defense experts were highly critical of the US use of nuclear weapons.

Possibilities of Nuclear Flashpoints in Recent Times

After USA had displayed their brute determination of committing mass genocide thru’ nuclear weapons in Japan and getting away with the culpability, the scare of another conflagration didn’t end with the culmination of WW-II. It has been ever growing thereafter. The world humanity lived in the fears of possible annihilation caused by nuclear weapons in the periods of Cold War too that resulted in a massive proliferation of nuclear weapons…some justified and many not. The most unfortunate part of the proliferation is that while some of the nations acquiring nuclear warheads are responsible states having huge peace-loving populations with their govts unwilling to succumb to the nuclear blackmails by others, there are some rogue nations too who have covertly managed to steal the weapon technologies from others.

Any nation opting to go nuclear, must have good reasons to do so. It may be a nation’s desire to project military might and that may be why USA and USSR acquired it. Another group of nations desirous of acquiring nuclear arsenals may be those at enmity with a nuclear state subjected to frequent hoodwinking. There could be yet another group of nations who are at the brink of receiving a collective wrath by a group of states inimical to them or may have just too large of a population to be left to fend for themselves on the mercy of nuclear or mightier states. Becoming a nuclear state has its own risks. It is very often that the efforts and costs involved in keeping the weapons safe and effective may be fairly large. It is no secret that the two superpowers USA and USSR had come very close to pressing the nuclear buttons in distant past though.

World has witnessed in the past as to how a nuclear state committed mass genocide of innocent civilians of a non-nuclear one at war though. This small state Japan was subjected to two massive nuclear attacks by USA, killing and disabling the millions of people, yet got away with the crime. Ukraine is standing at the same spot in the present times. World bodies couldn’t enforce compensations for the victims of Japan in the horrendous crime by USA nor will they be able to do it for Ukraine either, if so happens. It frightens all non-nuclear nations of possible decimations in the hands of a nuclear states, vulnerable in one or the other ways to the nuclear threats or blackmailing mentioned above and the continuing nuclear proliferation is the result.

Nuclear Proliferation

World felt that the end of rivalries between USA and USSR at the end of the cold war will end the nuclear threat but that was not to be. Although pacts and agreements between the two rivals did make some headlines of dismantling some nuclear warheads, the overall nuclear policies remained highly partisan, and the result is the nuclear proliferation. Today, there are seven declared nuclear states, two undeclared and some others at the threshold of becoming one. Beyond P-5, Pakistan was the sixth to have acquired the capability covertly in the end of 1980s but escaped being sanctioned because of USA’s interest in it. India having 1/6th population of the world, facing nuclear capable Chinese & Pakistani hostilities could not afford to remain indifferent and decided to go nuclear as a deterrence, declaring no first use. This gave Pakistan a reason to go public with nuclear detonations within days and declare itself as another nuclear state. Israel, a Jew State, has been facing Islamic genocidal intent right since its formation, hence decided to go nuclear covertly under the threats of the advancing “Islamic Bomb” programs of Iraq and Iran. North Korea had its own reason to have nuclear arsenal and like Pakistan, they have covertly acquired the capability allegedly with Chinese help. Iraq’s nuclear arsenal dream was shattered by Israel in Jun 1981 in their ‘Op Babylon’. Iran too has fathomed the same ambition of acquiring “Islamic Bomb’ and is apparently at the threshold of making it with covert Chinese/Pakistani tech assistance.

Nuclear Rants & Blackmails

Of late, there is revival of occasional rants of nuclear escalations. The patience of Russia is being tested every now and then in their conventional war with NATO, Ukraine becoming its face though. It has already been stated that Ukraine/NATO have already crossed the redline that Japan had crossed in WW-II, resulting in Hiroshima/ Nagasaki attacks (read “Kiev Destruction a clear possibility”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/kiev-destruction-clear-possibility/). The distrust between Iran and Israel is all-time high and Israeli PM has already warned that he will go to any extent to prevent Iran becoming nuclear. Pakistani radical clerics have already advised their political leadership to blackmail the world with Quran in one and the nuclear warheads in another hand. North Korea is already believed to have acquired nuclear warheads thru’ Chinese covert assistance. While the P-5 states and India don’t threaten or blackmail any state, Pakistan and Iran invariably keep threatening India and Israel-US respectively. Of course, they are influenced by their hateful Quranic jihadi ideologies against all non-Muslim states. Some other nations (like Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium & Turkey) sharing the nuclear arsenals of US-led NATO and Belarus hosting Russian nuclear arsenals. The hosting nations will be under the guidance of the nuclear nations.

Are the New Nuclear States Aware of the Dangers?

There is no reason to even suspect that a nuclear nation will not be aware of the impacts of a nuclear explosion. Explosions of a nuclear warhead will invariably be deliberate whether under test/trials or an attack. It is also certain that attack on a nuclear nation will invariably attract retaliation, often disproportionate as a state policy of ‘no first use’. This mandates every nuclear nation to have appropriate shelters for all citizens, key personnel and ‘High Value Assets’. There is no international policy as to what the response of the other nuclear states will be if a non-nuclear state is attacked with nuclear weapon. Even the UN/UNSC lacks any Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to discourage nuclear nations from doing so.

As a peacetime policy, nuclear states will not use nuclear weapons against the non-nuclear states. However, these conventions can be breached and thrown to the winds any time at one’s convenience. For example, Russian Duma has already authorized President Putin to take that critical decision to attack Ukraine with nuclear arsenals if situation demands so. Once a nuclear attack takes place, it is highly unlike that it will not be retaliated. Russia and NATO are highly likely to counter each other. Russia has an unlimited pact (incl defence) with China and a full Defence cooperation with North Korea. All these are nuclear states. Iran and Israel are always at loggerheads, determined to wipe out each other. Pakistan has specifically acquired nuclear arsenals to attack India without hesitating to keep first use option. Of course there will be strong retaliation but the terror-sponsoring state will not mind its citizen to die because they have the incentives of enjoying 72 hoors after deaths (read “Busy God Supplying Hoors”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/busy-god-supplying-hoors/). Their Quran preaches hate against non-Muslims (read “Is Quran a source of hate & intolerance?”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/is-quran-a-source-of-hate-and-intolerance/), it other matter though that if they attack India, numerous Muslims dispersed all over, will also die. Most nuclear nations would be aware of the reprisals they could have and there arises a need for both active and passive defense systems. P-5 States are believed to have made such defenses to some extent but newer nuclear states lack it.

Infrastructures for Defense Against Nuclear Attacks

Active defense is aimed at eliminating the threat before it hits the target whereas the passive defense is to boost the infrastructures that could shelter the population at risk in the target areas. Knocking out an incoming nuclear warhead either as a bomb dropped by an aircraft or carried by a missile is a tough task because those warheads cannot be made to explode by the Air defence rockets meant for approaching aircraft and missiles having conventional warheads. Nuclear warheads detonate with a very special technology where neutron impacts set the chain reaction. These warheads have an altitude sensor-controlled detonation. It first causes a limited implosion few hundred meters above the surface releasing high velocity neutron particles that set a chain reaction of fission of the weapon-grade Uranium, releasing huge energy of fire, shock and radiation waves that causes mushroom clouds inflicting catastrophic damages. The author is not aware if India has developed such a nuclear defence system that could knock out an incoming nuclear warhead before it reaches the target. The knocking out of nuclear warheads could be done if the rocket has such force of explosion that could rip-off the bomb in such a way that chain reaction doesn’t take place. 

Passive Defense Against Nuclear Attack

Passive defense against any incoming attack in air starts with the picking-up of the threats and sounding a public alarm in the form of a wailing siren. However, the question arises whether major Indian cities have a public alarm system that could be distinctly audible to the most, if not all residents whether at home, workplaces or in transit? It is very doubtful. This warning may provide just enough time for the public to scramble into an underground shelter made largely as per the specifications. Amidst the rapidly widening city limits with newer constructions both residential and commercial, it will be a good field research for the social safety groups to conduct if the authorities mandate or at least recommend such underground shelters. The author living in a class-I city has not seen any such underground shelter since India became a nuclear state nearly 27 yrs back. 

It is unfortunate that India, having a rogue nuclear adversary like Pakistan as neighbor is not prepared with underground nuclear shelters under most if not all homes/apartments so as to provide passive defense. It should have been a state policy of residential constructions in all class-A cities to say the least. Even in the metro cities, there are hardly any building which has under-ground shelters to protect the population from nuclear blasts. Should such cities be attacked by a rogue state, there could be a complete meltdown in the absence of built-in nuclear shelters in the densely populated or strategically important cities. Even during Chinese escalation after Galwan incident, experts talked of various possibilities of flare-up (incl nuclear options) but hardly anyone talked of general preparedness for citizens esp in metros of the availabilities of nuclear shelter under major apartment complexes. 

For any nuclear nation that has either fears of being attacked by others as retaliation or otherwise, there must be a permanent infrastructure in place in all major cities having prominent defense or economic installations. These infrastructures for civilians are created in almost every household, in an underground trench or tunnels having all basic facilities of survival. These include adequate space, ventilation, alternative opening for exit in case the building collapses, drinking water, first aid as well as flags to indicate location. An independent source of light/power will be preferable. 

The medical support expected to be provided after any nuclear attack is one of the most valuable area in the target zone. It is a rough calculation that almost > 75% people will need specialised medical support in the 5 km radius of the attack. Are our cities prepared or geared up with medical care facilities compatible with the nuclear contaminated environments? It is highly doubtful. Even the first aid for the affected personal may be difficult to get. We have the horrible experience of Covid-19 where serious faultlines were glaringly visible. Will anyone be ready to handle the radiation-contaminated patients? Their rescue, evacuation to medical facilities, meeting their secondary and tertiary medical care etc etc? It remains to be seen.

The above are only the bare minimum support requirements that the states must have in place as a preparatory step for the nuclear states. Besides, there are whole lot of the other supports too that will be required. It includes fully protected rescue staff and services, heavy lift machines to rescue people from collapsed dwelling, water & food, moving the large part of the population to temporary shelters in non-contaminated zones, putting the logistic supply chains etc in places. Some of these support neasures were part of the master plans in USA and the USSR but most other nations dont have it in place. Smaller nuclear nations having sparse population might be able to get away with smaller losses of life and infrastructures but larger and densely populated cities and nations will have devastating consequences.

The Bottom-Lines

World War-III seems round the corner although a bit distant away. With 9-10 nations armed with nuclear arsenals, some even being rogue states, it is a crucial time to put public safety in places at the highest priority. In WW-III possibly no nuclear state will remain untouched. India could be vulnerable because Pakistan has acquired the nuclear arsenals especially for use against it. Pakistan is a terror-sponsoring state and are likely to use it on one or the other pretexts, with little concerns for disproportionate retaliations they may receive. At present, Govt of India seems to be unconcerned and unprepared to withstand any such attack. It is the time to take effective measures for both active and passive defense against any future nuclear flare-up.