SpaceX too Struggling with Unpredictability

Problems with 28 Aug 24 launch

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has re-imposed restrictions on SpaceX re-usable rocket Falcon-9 assisted Space launches. The incident took place on a SpaceX mission to inject satellites in intend orbit that was done successfully. However, when the 1st stage of the rocket came for landing on a drone ship, it exploded in flames and toppled over. As per clarification issued by SpaceX, it was 22nd launch of the 1st stage that caught fire and that the mishap had taken place when it successfully detached from 2nd stage and came down for deck landing hence, it didn’t merit imposition of restriction. However, the question remains as to what could have happen if 1st stage caught fire before separation ? Another question arises as to how many consecutive launches could the 1st stage be certified for re-use? This is the second ban on SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket in 2 months.

Problems with 11 July 24 launch

Also, SpaceX launch on 11 July 2024 of Falcon-9 rocket had a major glitch in space when its 2nd Stage motor misfired, later leading to an upper stage liquid O2 leak as a result of which its motor failed to achieve the orbital velocities and all its 20 Starlink satellites injected wrongly at an eccentric perigee of 135 Km at sub-orbital velocity fell out. It deorbited quickly, making uncontrolled re-entry to the atmosphere and burnt out. Sub-Orbital velocities of both Payload section as well as wrongly injected Satellites were considered potential threat for collision with other orbiting objects/satellites hence, restrictions were imposed by the FAA. This also put a question mark on Falcon-9 rocket which is Human-rated for the launch of Human missions thru’ its Crew Dragon. However, since Crew Dragon is qualified for re-use and re-entry, missions can always be aborted to come back to /earth making a planned/unplanned atmospheric re-entry and splash down in the ocean.

The FAA Restriction and its Resolution

The restrictions imposed by the FAA is fully justified. However, the restriction will impact not only SpaceX but also other allied agencies that are dependent on Falcon-9 rockets. For instance, NASA, Axiom Space and Polaris Dawn will be affected immediately on their Human Space missions tied up with SpaceX’s Falcon-9 rockets. Even Boeing has obligations to bring back the test crew who has taken their Starliner to the ISS and have to be brought back in SpaceX Crew Dragon that was to be launched in Sep 2024.

Now since Falcon-9 is under spotlight for safety concerns, it is expected that neither SpaceX nor FAA will adapt a corner-cutting in its re-evaluation. Its first stage must be stringently specified as to how many re-launches/re-uses are to be permitted with which all refurbishments not impacting its skin surface to friction/fire and its impact resistance to repeated landing. Further, 2nd stage misfire affecting the upper stage motor/fuel (incl Liquid O2) that made it unable to acquire Orbital Velocity, are all worrisome. It needs to be solved unequivocally before Human missions are resumed.

Immediate Impacts of FAA Restrictions

It is believed that Boeing’s Starliner will come back without crew. Further there are only 2 NASA docking ports on the ISS hence, Boeing’s Starliner must undock before SpaceX launches its Crew Dragon. After a long, there appears to be some sort of pressure on NASA and SpaceX to streamline their Human Space programs and future commitment esp after the recent FAA restrictions. It can only be wishfully hoped that the recently encountered problems on SpaceX Falcon-9 rockets are resolved quickly without taking shortcuts.