Syria: Bitter Events on Cards Following Initial Euphoria
The Sudden Happenings
A largely stable Assad Govt in recent years in Syria has dramatically fallen in the hands of the Opposition Forces led by Jihadist organisations. The rapidity with which Assad govt has fallen like 7 pins, is unprecedented. Surrender of the govt forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama could be explained by military strategist that those cities had already had substantial presence of Jihadist Opposition, mainly Al-Julani-led Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). In fact, this opposition has mainly the radical Sunni/Salafi groups consisting of 70-odd organisations as enumerated below. Most of these groups have been in existence since mid-2010s. They are funded from multiple sources, the main ones being USA, UK, France, Germany, Saudi, Qatar and the global United Islamic Jihad Council controlled by the OIC.
Following massive military pressure by Israel on Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is possible that Iran could have ordered some of their Hezbollah cadre based in Syria to reinforce in Lebanon before their ceasefire deal was signed. It must have been too little a time for the unsuspecting Syrian Hezbollah to recall those units before the Opposition Syrian Forces started their assault march. This could have been the reason for an easy takeover of the territories by the opposition forces. However, it cannot explain why Damascus and other cities where Govt forces were substantial in number, did not resist and surrendered so quickly. It must have been instructions from the top brasses of the Syrian Military that they did so.
USA and a few EU Forces have been long trying to topple Assad Govt to lay their hands on easy Syrian high-grade oil. In the process, they helped even ISIL jihadist forces. Syria became the victim of UK, French, US and Turkiye air offensives in mid 2010s. Even Kurdish forces assisted in it to strong disliking by Turkiye. The western narrative of Chemical War against the govt forces met a dead end by UN sponsored investigator BUT multi-factional war continued. After initial success, opposition forces lost substantial grounds to be limited largely within Idlib and smaller parts of Aleppo and Hama that fell first now following reactivation of the Jihadist-led opposition offensive in the last few days.
Tapering Russian and Iranian Assistance
Following increasing pressure on Russia at their Ukrainian fronts, Russia itself had to seek military assistance of North Korea. On the other hand, Iran assisted Hezbollah has suffered huge losses of their war-stores as well as cadres in Lebanon. This could have forced Iran to withdraw some of their Hezbollah cadre and Army Commanders based in Syria to re-deploy in Lebanon thus weakening of the positions of the Govt Forces. This could have been the main reason why tapering off of the Russian and Iranian assistance depleted the strength of the Assad govt forces, thus leading to opposition forces rapidly run-over Aleppo and Hama without resistance.
It is also possible that in a high level meeting, both Russia and Iran had conveyed their unwillingness to reinforce the Assad Govt forces. This could be the only reason why demoralized govt forces chose not to offer resistance against the rapidly moving opposition forces. The Govt Military forces surely would have known how brutal the new jihadist regime could be towards them awarding summary capital punishments like what happened in Afghanistan after Taliban takeover. Indeed, in the initial overtures, the HTS Jihadists have vowed to hold the senior executives under Assad govt culpable for the atrocities commited. Indirectly, it means that they may face summary executions. There are also reports that many of the Assad govt troops left Syria during opposition forces' march towards Aleppo, Hams and Damascus to take refuge in Iraq. May be, all these were known to USA-NATO which encouraged the opposition forces to march into Damascus which just not offer any resistance whatsoever.
End of Assad Era
Thus, in a dramatic turn of events, Assad along with his family escaped from Damascus to location unknown at that time. There were unconfirmed report that this plane disappeared from the radar scope near Homs (where Russian Air base is present) creating a rumour that it might have landed there to take him further to Russia. Unconfirmed reports have started coming that he has landed in Moscow and granted asylum. Police and Armed Forces are either in their barracks or have shed their uniforms and disseminated among the civilians. The top brass of Army themselves have announced the fall of Assad regime on 8th Dec 24.
It is believed that Al-Julani has formed an interim govt headed by himself as the founder head (President designate?), Md Al Bashir as Interim PM and most other portfolios given to the one or the other jihadist factions of HTS/Opposition Forces that their Syrian Salvation Front (SSF) in Idlib had held. It is of major concern that most in the SSF belonged to the radical groups. None from the minority communities or women groups are represented. It seems a beginning of the dark days ahead. Strangely, Shia proxy terror group Houthi extended support which was least expected. Surely, the picture is very blurred.
Syria has just witnessed the dramatic end to a near 50-year rule of Assad family. President of Syria Mr Basr-al-Assad must have been conveyed that Russian-Iranian reinforcements are not coming hence, he chose to flee. The military could have been told not to resist the opposition forces. Al Julani, Commander of HTS is reported to have come on Syrian TV to announce the end of Assad regime.
An Uncertain Further Course of Events
Western nations and United Nations appear upbeat that the Syrian people may be able to reconstruct their nation BUT there are deep concerns right away…of Jihadist overtures of the Opposition forces that western nations will not like to see. Israel has already started creating a cushion area thus strengthening their defence of Golan Heights. In the coming days, as the dust starts settling down, Jihadist-led opposition’s intent will look clearer. Kurdish forces are already at odds with Turkiye. HTS is a component of ISIS/ISIL averse to Western powers. Significant numbers of Hezbollah may still be present in various parts of Syria who will surely not like the presence of Sunni-Jihadist groups dictating them and that may spark a new Sectarian fighting in Syria. It is also possible that Lebanon based Hezbollah may start engaging the Syrian Opposition forces adjoining their territories.
Previous govts of Syria have signed agreements with Russia to provide Air Force and Naval bases as a result of which a significant number of Russian Forces and War machines are in position. USA-led NATO will certainly incite the Syrian Forces in the new government to nullify those agreements and insist on the Russians to move out. However, Iranian forces and Hezbollah may not move out easily and there could be a sectarian violence. As such ISIL/Al-Qaida-linked Jihadist forces cannot be trusted upon what they will do after assuming the power in Syria. The smiles on the faces of the civilians of Syria may be short-lived. They are the ones who are likely to bear the maximum brunt as it happened in Afghanistan. The Radical Islamist groups in the region esp those in Syria will not let the western nations perceive that life has returned to normal. If that happens, there will be pressure on the migrants in most EU nations to return. Radical Islamists will like the migrants to remain in Europe like a deep thorn in flesh causing persistent pains.
The Bottom-Lines
Owing to multiple reasons, the opposition forces in Syria has ousted a near 50 yr old rule by Assad family. It has been a bloodless coup that made President Assad along with his family to flee to Russia and seek asylum. The new govt regime is yet to be formed. If Jihadists grab the power, it will be a mystery as to what the intent of the new regime could be. Presently, there is a cautious initial euphoria that may vanish soon. The many power blocks within Syria are going to have an unpredictable and tough time. If a sectarian violence starts, it would be tragic. The well-being of the civilians in the near future is uncertain. Syria is paying high price of power games by the power blocks…be it USA-led EU block, Russia or the regional radical group of the Islamic nations.