Will Syria Descend to Hell?

Introductory Optics of HTS

No sooner Assad Regime was toppled by the Opposition Forces primarily led by ISIS/ISIL affiliates in the form of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) the (breakup of the constituents given below), there has been visible euphoria among most of the inhabitants among Sunni Muslims. Besides HTS, there are others too who have powered the HTS to topple the Assad regime. They include free Syrian Army, Kurd-led Syrian Democratic Forces and several others. It is believed that the large sections of Shia Muslims, Druze and Christians of Syria are in fears, keeping their fingers crossed for a possible reprisal by HTS terrorists.

HTS Playing Optics of Public Support

HTS supremo Jolani made a public announcement on 12th Dec 24 calling the supporters to turn up in large numbers on 13 Dec 24 at Umayyad Square in Damascus. He also made a special mention for his Jihadi cadres not to fire from their firearms in the celebration…BUT…Terrorists are terrorists. They couldn’t stop their joys without firing bursts of bullets scaring both people & birds alike. He had made special arrangements of the show of crackers in the evening. Somewhat this request/instruction of HTS Chief reminded the author of a wolf in sheep skin.

Jolani made it a point to let the celebration be broadcasted live by foreign media as an optics. Firstly, he needs sanctions lifted out from his organization that is proscribed by many nations, secondly, he needs recognition of the coup as legitimate by the international communities and thirdly, he needs aid and funds to feed his own jihadists. Although he also tried to send a message to the international communities that it will be a new Syria for all citizens, some constituents of HTS have publicly expressed of settling scores with the earlier supporters of Assad regime. This was an indicator of likely mass public executions in the coming days. ISIS/ISIL/Al Qaida jihadists/terrorists are experienced in such terror activities both in Syria (of past and present) as well as in other nation occupied by the Jihadists be it Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Dagestan, Pakistan/Bangladesh or someone else. The world just cannot trust Jihadi organisations. In no time, they will reveal their terrorist character and religious minorities will be first in their line of fire, vulnerable to genocide.

Fear of Jihadist’s Rule

The initial euphoria of the supporters and sympathisers of ISIS/ISIL/HTS/Al Qaida can be understood on their take over of the nation. They will seldom express their disagreement/ disappointment against their jihadi deeds just like what we are seeing in Gaza where despite the deaths of tens of thousands of their kith & kins, not a single protest against Hamas administration has taken place as to why they should die for their atrocities committed against innocent Israelis on 7th Oct 23. However, innocent citizen and religious/ethnic minorities knowing the intent and characters of jihadists will have strong fear of falling into hell. Scattered reports are already emerging on social media of mass executions by the incumbent forces of Jihadists in many Syrian cities, of the people who were loyal to the previous regime. This is not surprising. The opposition forces ruling Idlib province of Syria for many years has been known for its brutality. In those years, they too had created mass fears thru’ severe persecutions of esp those supporting Assad regime as well as the religious minorities. However, these persecutions by ISIS/ISIL affiliates were with a difference as compared to those in Afghanistan/Pakistan. The differences were in the form of distributing peanuts after forfeiture of lifetime earnings. They had carried out heinous atrocities on the minorities, later followed by minor reliefs.

A Weakened Syria Fertile Ground for World Jihadists

In no time after Jihadist group of HTS took control of major cities of Syria incl Damascus, Israeli forces were alerted that all war-machines of the Syrian Armed Forces might fall in their hands hence, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched more than 450 attacks thru’ their Air Force and Navy to destroy them in situ itself. Syrian Navy and Air Force have been almost destroyed. Military assets of tanks, artilleries, Missiles and major ammunition depots…all of Russian/Iranian/North Korean origins….have been struck effectively. It is believed by the international defence experts that nearly 80% of Syrian defence assets have been destroyed or put out of action. However, it is also believed that Syrian Army and their Hezbollah supporters who couldn’t disperse among the local civilians, have moved out to secluded locations mostly close to their southern border with their left-over war equipment to defend against possible HTS attacks on them. Reports of Israeli Air Force attacks are coming against them too. Thus, war mounting and fighting capabilities of Syria has been severely depleted by IDF actions.

The above IDF actions of ensuring the Syrian military equipment don’t fall in jihadist hand is understandable for the world…BUT…world must not forget that jihadists seldom use heavy military equipment to commit jihad. There small arm fire and suicide vests are good enough to commit terror acts. Hamas in their 7th Oct 23 attack carried no heavy equipment yet caused lots of deaths and devastations. The point is that by destroying 80% of military equipment, jihadi capabilities of the HTS-led opposition forces cannot be assumed to be nullified. It is felt by most experts in defence matters that a weak Syria will be a fertile ground for large numbers of jihadi groups, not only of the region but belonging to all over the world. There are approx. 200-odd jihadi organisations in the world.

Dangers of Possible Break-up of Syria

Besides HTS, there are several other groups, some having secessionist aspirations too…like the Kurd-led Syrian Democratic Force which wants to carve out the territory of erstwhile Kurdistan out of parts of Iraq, Syria and Turkiye. Turkiye considers them as their enemy and keeps mounting periodic attacks. On the other hand, Free Syrian Army having their dominance in northern Syria, is largely affiliated to Turkiye. There are already credible reports that Turkiye has occupied Manbij city of Syria. It also means that Turkiye is trying to grab some of the northern parts of Syria. Kurds, on the other hand, are already working towards carving out of north-east part of Syria into a greater Kurdistan that has been their goal. This is a direct threat to Turkiye because Kurdistan also contains some of their south-eastern parts. and also attacked Kurd groups carrying Syrian weapons in 12-odd trucks.

In the ongoing toppling of the Govt Forces, isolated statements from the factions of the opposition forces are coming that they will punish those who worked for or colluded with Assad regime. It indirectly means that the lives of most govt officials, Armed Forces and loyal police personals are at stakes. Although transparency is lacking in the news coming out from Syria, it is believed that Jihadi groups are indulging in sporadic mass exterminations. The Govt forces of Assad are re-assembling in smaller pockets for safety. If attacked, they will surely retaliate thus opening another front for civil war is gathering grounds. In addition, there is yet another fact that Israeli forces have expanded their control beyond Golan Height to create a new ‘Buffer Zone’. Thus, Syria is at a high risk of being fragmented and since IDF has destroyed the resources and war machine of the Syrian Armed Forces approx 80%, the new administration will be in no position to prevent its fragmentation. On the contrary, under such diminished powers, the warring jihadi groups including Hezbollah, may like to take their own pounds of flesh and part ways from the loose coalition that they are at present. Syria seems to be in great troubles.

Fear of Minorities

The minorities both religious and ethnic, that include Christians, Druze and Yezdis; are in utter fear. Barbarism committed on Yezidis by ISIS in the neighboring Iraq in mid 2010s are still fresh in their minds. They had faced many persecutions in Idlib by the same very administration who is now at the center (Damascus) although the noose on their freedom was slightly relieved later. The same is likely to be in the whole of Syria. As such Jihadis of late have become expert in double speak like those indulged by Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban against US-led NATO forces. These barbarian jihadists resemble a demonic ideology that cannot be trusted upon.

Pictures and videos coming out from jihadist-controlled Syria are highly filtered and goodie-goodie. The dark side of the coup have not been let to come out. Jihadists who are hate children of Quran, has never done good for the non-Muslims in any part of the world and Syria will be no exceptions. As visible on their streets, there is no dearth of automatic weapons in the hands of the jihadists and like any other Islamic nation embroiled in violence, they will seek food from the UN/World Food Program (read “O Foolish World, You Must Feed me free while I commit Jihad”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/o-world-you-feed-me-free-while-i-mount-jihad/). Long live Islamic Jihad in yet another part of the world.

The Future of Syria

Assad Family had built Syria as nations and its national as a stable, progressive and powerful nation in the region. Despite being Islamic, it followed a path of moderate ideology providing space for all cultures. Its economy was based mostly on Petroleum and Agriculture, gradually declining in 21st century. Syria had reasonably good education system with a mix of modernity. The literacy rate was approx. 90% for men and 80% for women, among the highest in the region. Syrian cuisine and music too had a special flavour, somewhat unique in the region. Now with Syria coming under ISIS/ISIL/Al Qaida control, modern education as well as literacy rate for women is expected to dip; just like what happened in Afghanistan. Another crisis may come up on the return of Syrian-cum-Islamic refugees from Europe. Many may evade such returns.

After the western nations started interfering against President Al-Assad, its instability started. This starved-economy nation that was earlier supported by Iran, Russia and China in its economy, is expected to suffer under Jihadist rule. It could turn out to be a major fertile ground for Jihadi terrorists. Just like Pakistan and some others, Islamic terror could be a major export object for Syria in the coming years if this cancer of jihadists continues. 

Bottom-Lines

Syria, an erstwhile culturally rich country has had external interference from US-led NATO, Russia, EU as well as its hostile neighbors. Besides, Assad regime of nearly 50 yrs have largely been autocratic despite the President being elected. Syria, primarily a Sunni Muslim state, has many ethnic and religious minorities that include Druze, Christians, Kurds, Armenians. Now with ISIS/ISIL/Al Qaida toppling Assad regime, large sections of Sunni majority are likely to support or sympathise with the new regime of HTS Jihadists. The minorities are sure to face persecution whether sooner or later. The ruling regime will continue maintaining double face and double talk. While they will be brutal against minorities and people opposing the regime; the rulers will try to show its double face and indulge in double speak to the international communities to try obtaining recognition for terrorist regime; and seek some aid from UN/WFP to feed the jihadists. There is potential risk of its territorial grabs by Israel, Turkiye or the Kurds. Return of refugees from European/American nations are going to be problematic and the weakened state in the subsequent years is likely to become one of the major Islamic terror-sponsoring state in the world.